Uncertainty quantification for nonlinear solid mechanics using reduced order models with Gaussian process regression
Ludovica Cicci, Stefania Fresca, Mengwu Guo, Andrea Manzoni, Paolo Zunino
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, such as sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation, entail a huge computational complexity when dealing with input-output maps involving the solution of nonlinear differential problems, because of the need to query expensive numerical solvers repeatedly. Projection-based reduced order models (ROMs), such as the Galerkin-reduced basis (RB) method, have been extensively developed in the last decades to overcome the computational complexity of high fidelity full order models (FOMs), providing remarkable speed-ups when addressing UQ tasks related with parameterized differential problems. Nonetheless, constructing a projection-based ROM that can be efficiently queried usually requires extensive modifications to the original code, a task which is non-trivial for nonlinear problems, or even not possible at all when proprietary software is used. Non-intrusive ROMs – which rely on the FOM as a black box – have been recently developed to overcome this issue. In this work, we consider ROMs exploiting proper orthogonal decomposition to construct a reduced basis from a set of FOM snapshots, and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to approximate the RB projection coefficients. Two different approaches, namely a global GPR and a tensor-decomposition-based GPR, are explored on a set of 3D time-dependent solid mechanics examples. Finally, the non-intrusive ROM is exploited to perform global sensitivity analysis (relying on both screening and variance-based methods) and parameter estimation (through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods), showing remarkable computational speed-ups and very good accuracy compared to high-fidelity FOMs.