Vineyards, vegetables or business-as-usual? Stakeholder-informed land use change modelling to predict the future of a groundwater-dependent prime-wine region under climate change
Jessica Penny, Carlos M. Ordens, Steve Barnett, Slobodan Djordjević, Albert Chen
Abstract
Although land use change (LUC) can have detrimental environmental impacts, very few studies have explored the idea that changes in groundwater conditions and water management directly influence LU. This study uses a socio-hydrogeological approach to model future land use change and help to understand the implication for groundwater availability. The Angas Bremer Prescribed Wells Area (Murray-Darling Basin, Australia) was used as a case study because it provides a rare example of complex and transient groundwater management. This study (i) uses groundwater levels and salinities as drivers for LU; (ii) considers future scenarios based on agricultural development of certain crop types rather than conservation or urban development; and, (iii) takes a socio-hydrogeological approach, using stakeholder expertise in future scenarios design and information gathering on its implications for regional groundwater resources. Predicted changes in climate (rainfall and temperature) will lead to increased uncertainties in agricultural production within the region, which is expected to be especially detrimental for the viticulture industry in Angas Bremer. By using the PLUS model and the development potential (growth possibility) of each LU type through the Land Expansion Analysis Strategy module, we have been able to identify optimum potential growth areas for both vegetables and vineyards. A social-hydrogeology approach is an important aspect to LUC modelling linked to groundwater management. The stakeholder engagement resulted in important inputs and the design of LU scenarios that were consequently more relevant.