Projected Water Scarcity and Hydrological Extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the 21st Century under SSP-RCP Scenarios
Lüliu Liu, Chan Xiao, Yihua Liu
Abstract
This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the near-term (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), and long-term (2076–2100) periods under three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–45, and SSP5–8.5 relative to the reference period (1986–2010), based on the runoff simulation through the Huayuankou hydrological station using the HBV-D hydrological model, which was forced by a statistically downscaling dataset. The results indicate that water shortage would still threaten the Yellow River because annual runoff will remain below 1000 m3/year, although water scarcity would be alleviated to some degree. More and larger floods will happen in summer in the 21st century, especially in the long-term period under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. More Hydrological droughts will occur during July–October, and some extreme droughts would likely exceed the historical largest magnitudes in July and August in the long term under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.