Long-Term Evaluation and Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) Models for Predicting Radiation-Induced Optic Neuropathy after Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Large Retrospective Study in China
Yan‐Ling Wu, Wen‐Fei Li, Kai‐Bin Yang, Lei Chen, Jing-Rong Shi, Fo‐Ping Chen, Xiaodan Huang, Li Lin, Xiaomin Zhang, Jing Li, Yu‐Pei Chen, Ling‐Long Tang, Yan‐Ping Mao, Jun Ma
Abstract
Purpose. To quantify the long-term evaluation of optic chiasma (OC) and/or optic nerve(s) (ONs) and to develop predictive models for radiation-induced optic neuropathy (RION) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials. A total of 3,662 patients’ OC/ONs with full visual acuity and dosimetry data between 2010 and 2015 were identified. Critical dosimetry predictors of RION were chosen by machine learning and penalized regression for survival. A nomogram containing dosimetry and clinical variables was generated for predicting RION-free survival. Results. The median follow-up was 71.79 (2.63–120.9) months. Sixty-six eyes in 51 patients (1.39%) developed RION. Two patients were visual field deficient, and 49 patients had visual acuity of less than 0.1 (20/200). The median latency time was 36 (3–90) months. The 3-, 5-, and 8-year cumulative incidence of RION was 0.78%, 1.19%, and 1.97%, respectively. Dmax was the most critical dosimetry variable for RION (AUC: 0.9434, the optimal cutoff: 64.48 Gy). Patients with a Dmax ≥64.48 Gy had a significantly higher risk of RION (HR = 102.25; 95%CI, 24.86–420.59; <a:math xmlns:a="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"> <a:mi>P</a:mi> <a:mo><</a:mo> <a:mn>0.001</a:mn> </a:math> ). Age (>44 years) (HR = 2.234, 95% CI = 1.233–4.051, p = 0.008), advanced T stage (T3 vs. T1-2: HR = 7.516, 95% CI = 1.725–32.767, <c:math xmlns:c="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2"> <c:mi>p</c:mi> <c:mo>=</c:mo> <c:mn>0.007</c:mn> </c:math> ; T4 vs. T1-2: HR = 37.189, 95% CI = 8.796–157.266, <e:math xmlns:e="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3"> <e:mi>P</e:mi> <e:mo><</e:mo> <e:mn>0.001</e:mn> </e:math> ), and tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ONs (HR = 4.572, 95% CI = 1.316–15.874, <g:math xmlns:g="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M4"> <g:mi>p</g:mi> <g:mo>=</g:mo> <g:mn>0.017</g:mn> </g:math> ) were significant clinical risk factors of RION. A nomogram comprising age, T stage, tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ON, and Dmax significantly outperformed the model, with only Dmax predicting RION (C-index: 0.916 vs. 0.880, <i:math xmlns:i="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M5"> <i:mi>P</i:mi> <i:mo><</i:mo> <i:mn>0.001</i:mn> </i:math> in the training set; 0.899 vs. 0.874, <k:math xmlns:k="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M6"> <k:mi>P</k:mi> <k:mo>=</k:mo> <k:mn>0.038</k:mn> </k:math> in the test set). The nomogram-defined high-risk group had a worse 8-year RION-free survival. Conclusions. In the IMRT era, Dmax <60 Gy is safe and represents an acceptable dose constraint for most NPC patients receiving IMRT. A reasonable trade-off for selected patients with unsatisfactory tumor coverage due to proximity to the optic apparatus would be Dmax <65 Gy. Caution should be exercised when treating elderly and advanced T-stage patients or those with tumor infiltration/compression of the OC/ON. Our nomogram shows strong efficacy in predicting RION.