Novel Soft-Computing Approach to Better Predict Flexible Pavement Roughness
Hamed Naseri, Mohammad Shokoohi, Hamid Jahanbakhsh, Mohammad M. Karimi, E. Owen D. Waygood
Abstract
Road infrastructures are fundamental parts of peoples’ lives, allowing them to access various destinations and activities. Accordingly, infrastructure should be in an appropriate condition. A pavement maintenance plan should be optimized, and pavement condition should be predicted accurately to obtain optimal pavement maintenance solutions. Therefore, the prediction of pavement conditions with high accuracy has been an immense concern. This study aims to introduce a new approach to accurately predict pavement international roughness index (IRI) over the long term. To this end, all the vital parameters, including initial IRI, pavement age, lane width, traffic loadings, structural characteristics, climatic features, and pavement distresses, are considered. With all the vital parameters, the prediction problem includes 58 variables. Thus, the application of a proper feature-selection technique is vital. To this end, a novel hybrid feature-selection method is introduced by a combination of arithmetic optimization algorithm and stochastic gradient descent regression (AOA-SGDR). Moreover, the performance of the proposed feature-selection method is compared with Lasso and all features. Five machine-learning algorithms, including random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, decision-tree regression, and multiple linear regression, are employed for the prediction process. By employing AOA-SGDR, the average testing-data mean absolute error (MAE) reduces by at least 7.92%. Meanwhile, RFR provides the highest accuracy, with average testing-data MAE of 0.095 m/km. Moreover, analyzing the parameters indicates that initial IRI, pavement age, equivalent single axle load (ESAL), and structural number (SN) have the most significant relative influence on IRI.