Changes in compound hot and dry day and population exposure across China under climate change
Yao Feng, Fubao Sun, Wenbin Liu, Jie Chen, Hong Wang, Qiang Guo, Yang Wang, Qiang Zhang, Yan‐Fang Sang
Abstract
Abstract Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure ( E pop ) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The bias‐corrected GCMs, particularly the two‐stage multivariate quantile mapping‐corrected ones, perform better than the raw ones in catching changes in CHDD but they all overestimate CHDD and E pop . More CHDDs occur in the southeast (SE), north (NC) and northwest (NW) China with increasing trends over regions stretching from the northeast (NE) to southwest (SW) China. Despite the declined CHDD, historical E pop has generally increased by the increased population. Future projections in the SSP5‐8.5 experiment indicate an overall increase of CHDD and E pop at 1.5°C warming and an increasing E pop to dangerous CHDD at 2°C warming. SW, NE and the Tibetan Plateau need effective measures of adaptation to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change.