The Unknown Present: The Governance Gap Between Compliance and Safety
Paul Mincher
Abstract
This paper introduces “The Unknown Present”, a governance concept describing the structural absence of evidence about the actual state of safety at the moment it is relied upon.The work examines why compliance, certification, and process assurance repeatedly fail during post-incident inquiries despite formal adherence to standards. It argues that these regimes validate historical conditions, not contemporaneous system state, leaving a critical evidentiary gap at the point of reliance.The paper is non-prescriptive and intentionally solution-agnostic. Its purpose is to define the problem space, establish terminology, and provide a governance-level framing suitable for regulators, insurers, courts, and system designers examining accountability, duty of care, and evidentiary sufficiency in safety-critical systems.