Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
Mlyashimbi Helikumi, Gideon Eustace, Steady Mushayabasa
Abstract
In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.