European Windstorm Risk of Post‐Tropical Cyclones and the Impact of Climate Change
Rein Haarsma
Abstract
Abstract Sainsbury et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089853 ) highlighted the fact that although post‐tropical cyclones only consist of a small part of the cyclones impacting Northern Europe (∼1%) during the hurricane season, their contribution to storms with at least storm force (>25 m/s) is about 10 times larger and therefore pose a substantial windstorm risk for Northern Europe. Overall post‐TCs impacting Northern Europe are significantly more intense than midlatitude cyclones. This is related to their combined tropical (warm seawater) and midlatitude (baroclinic instability) energy source. A few studies have suggested that in a warmer climate the amount and intensity of post‐tropical cyclones might increase due to stronger tropical cyclones (TCs), warmer oceans, and pole and eastward extension of TC genesis regions. This would further enhance the windstorm risk of post‐TCs. Further high‐resolution modeling research is required to delineate this risk.