Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the early stage Chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China in 2025
Meng Zhang, Yihong Li, Xiqing Huang, Man Liu, S.J. You Guo Jiang, Biao Zeng, Luxiang Ouyang, Jianhua Huang, Bing Mai, Qihua Guan, Jiazhi Zeng, Mengfei FU, Bingu Zhuo, Ya‐Wen Liu, Qin Zeng, Naling Zhu, Tao Wang, Xiaojun Huang, Yimin Pan, Mingji Cheng, Penghui Jia, Xiaofang Peng, Duan Jinhua, Baisheng Li, Jianfeng He, Yanping Zhang, Lei Zhou, Min‐Gyu Kang, Jianpeng Xiao, Zefeng Yang, Yan Li
Abstract
Abstract Background As of July 22, 2025, the chikungunya virus transmission has been documented across 119 countries and territories of the world. In 2025, an outbreak of chikungunya fever (CF) occurred in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. We aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics during the early stage of this outbreak. Methods We collected the data of CF cases in Foshan from July 8 to July 26, 2025. Case data were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Demographics and tempo-spatial distributions of cases, incidence rates and the onset-to-report interval times were analyzed. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I ) to assess township-level clustering; Kruskal–Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc comparisons (Bonferroni-corrected) to analyze onset-to-report intervals across four epidemic phases. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) was calculated using a maximum likelihood method, which was also compared with the R 0 from the CF outbreak in Dongguan City of Guangdong Province in 2010. Results A total of 4,754 local cases were reported during the study period. Persons aged 65 years or above had the highest incidence (116.57 per 100,000 population). Most cases were business/service workers, homemakers, and retirees. The median onset-to-report interval decreased from 4 days to 1 day after outbreak control measures were implemented. The outbreak, initially detected in Shunde District, spread rapidly to other districts of Foshan, forming a significant spatial cluster (Moran's I = 0.152, P = 0.029). The estimated R 0 was 16.3 (95% confidence interval: 15.0 to 17.5), substantially higher than the estimated R 0 of 5.5 for the Dongguan outbreak in 2010. Conclusions This outbreak was characterized by high transmissibility, with older persons being a primary high-risk group. The rapid reduction in case reporting delay highlights the effectiveness of response interventions. Sustained, integrated and prompt response has been essential to control the outbreak. Graphical Abstract