Macroeconomic effects of a low carbon electrification of greater Kampala Metropolitan area energy policy: A computable general equilibrium analysis
Ismail Kimuli, Michael Lubwama, Adam Sebbit, John Baptist Kirabira
Abstract
Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) is Uganda's capital facing increasing pressures to raise electricity generation and also mitigate CO2 emissions. A low-carbon electrification of the GKMA energy policy is proposed for sustainability. But the macroeconomic effects of this policy are unknown. The study uses a multi-sector, single region, static GKMA-CGE model to address the knowledge gap in 4 scenarios. BAU is the baseline against which comparisons with Kabejja (20% CO2 abatement); Carbon-Tax ($100/ton) and Lutta scenarios (95% CO2 abatement) are made. The results indicate GDP increased by Kabejja:0.7%; Carbon-Tax:1.3%; Lutta:1.56% with respect to BAU. Equivalent variation also increased compared to BAU. Energy & CO2 intensities of GDP decreased in all scenarios. The study recommends Lutta for a sustainable 2050.