Modeling and forecasting of freight traffic volumes
Mirsalih Madiyevich Marupov, Burcu Aracıoğlu, Zokirkhon Yusufkhonov
Abstract
The article discusses the issues related to multifactor modeling and forecasting of the volume of cargo transportation, taking into account the influence of numerous factors. To determine the measure of influence of each factor, multifactorial models and regression analysis methods are used, which enable accurate forecasting. To build models of the volume of cargo transportation, a multistage regression analysis is employed, where statistically insignificant factors are eliminated at each successive stage according to the t-criterion. Economic and mathematical models based on correlation and regression equations allow for a complete analysis of interrelated factors affecting the formation of the industry plan, thus enabling the substantiation of the quality of the developed long-term plans.