Спутниковая оценка гибели древостоев от пожаров по данным о сезонном распределении пройденной огнем площади

Abstract

RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST SCIENCE, 2021, No. 2, P. 115–122 AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOREST STANDS DESTRUCTION BY FIRES BASEDON THE REMOTE SENSING DATA ON A SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF BURNT AREAS S. A. Bartalev 1,2 , F. V. Stytsenko 1,2 1 Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences Profsoyuznaya st. 84/32, Moscow, 117997 2 Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity of the RAS Profsoyuznaya st. 84/32 bldg. 14, Moscow, 117997, Russia E-mail: [email protected] Received 17 August 2020 The paper presents the results of the lethality assessment of forest fires (the proportion of the dead forests area in comparison to their total area affected by fire) in the Russian forests for the period of 2006-2019. according to remote sensing data. The determined dependence of the probability of forests’ pyrogenic destruction on the time of the fire starting and its overall impact during the season allow us to consider the factor of the seasonal distribution of the area of fires one of the informative predictors of their lethality. The SFLI (Seasonal Fire Lethality Index) suggested in the article makes it possible to estimate the scale of Russian forests’ pyrogenic destruction based on the information obtained from satellite monitoring of the area covered by fire distribution during a fire hazardous season. The results obtained demonstrate the presence of a linear correlation between the value of the proposed index and the values of the forest fires lethality index. At the same time, the determination coefficient of the correlation between the two above-mentioned characteristics reaches its maximum (R2 = 0.80) on July 19, which determines the choice of this calendar date as the culminating day of the forest fires’ lethality. The linear regression equation corresponding to this calendar date between the characteristics of the fires’ lethality for the forests of Russia provides the possibility of its annual remote assessment with a mean square error of ± 10.5%. To assess the lethality of forest fires on the basis of the proposed method, there are minimal requirements for input data, which include only information on the distribution of the forest area covered by fire during the fire-hazardous season, which makes it possible to use it promptly on a national scale. The results obtained can be of direct practical importance for optimizing the fire protection regimes of Russian forests, taking into account the fires’ potential lethality. Keywords: forest fires, pyrogenic destruction of forests, forest fires monitoring, remote sensing, Seasonal Fire Lethality Index. Acknowledgements: The work has been carried out with a financial support of the RSCF (19-77-30015). Infrastructure of the Shared Knowledge Centre “IKI-Monitoring”, developed and being maintained within the framework of the “Monitoring” program (state register code 01.20.0.2.00164) was used to carry out this research. Statistical processing of data was carried out within the framework of the State Contract with CEPF RAS АААА-А18-118052590019-7. DOI: 10.31857/S0024114821020029 REFERENCES Bartalev S.A., Egorov V.A., Efremov V.Y., Lupyan E.A., Stytsenko F.V., Flitman E.V., Otsenka ploshchadi pozharov na osnove kompleksirovaniya sputnikovykh dannykh razlichnogo prostranstvennogo razresheniya MODIS i Landsat-TM/ETM+ (Integrated burnt area assessment based on combine use of multi-resolution MODIS and Landsat-TM/ETM+ satellite data), Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa , 2012, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 9–27. 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