Pathways to climate neutrality: Europe's energy transition under the Green Deal
Steven S. Salim, Stefan L. Luxembourg, Koen Smekens, Francesco Dalla Longa, Bob van der Zwaan
Abstract
The EU committed to reducing 55 % of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050 through its Green Deal and Fit for 55 policy package. This study employs the TIMES-Europe model to assess multiple pathways for the required energy transition and their cost implications, while explicitly accounting for the interplay between existing EU energy policies. We do so by analysing, from both a pan-European and a national perspective, the impact of the proposed 2040 climate target, the energy efficiency-first principle, and various collaboration frameworks such as fairness-based burden-sharing. Our projections show that under the most ambitious policy scenarios, renewable electricity could contribute up to 44 % of Europe's Primary Energy Consumption mix by 2050. Domestic fossil fuel shares decline from 51 % to 12 %. However, import dependency increases to 49 %, with a shift from crude oil to refined petroleum products, raising concerns over emissions leakage. Residual emissions of ∼0.3 GtCO 2 persist under current policy trajectories, which highlights the need for more stringent measures to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Implementing the 2040 climate target and the EU Energy Efficiency Directive could reduce cumulative emissions by an additional 10.62 GtCO 2 but at a 100–116 % increase in policy costs. The application of equitable burden-sharing frameworks, however, induces no extra costs at the European level, which demonstrates that collaboration can facilitate cost-effective decarbonisation. Our findings emphasise the need for enhanced policies targeting hard-to-abate sectors and balancing equity with efficiency in Europe's energy transition.