An agent-based modeling framework for examining the dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system
Austin R. Harris, Paul J. Roebber, Rebecca E. Morss
Abstract
Hurricane evacuations involve many interacting physical-social factors and uncertainties that evolve with time as the storm approaches and arrives. Because of these complex and uncertain dynamics, improving the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system remains a formidable challenge for researchers and practitioners alike. This article introduces a modeling framework built to holistically investigate the complex dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system i.e., to determine which factors are most important and how they interact across a range of real or synthetic scenarios. The modeling framework, called FLEE, includes models of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connections between systems (forecasts and warning information, traffic). In this paper, we describe FLEE's conceptualization and implementation and present proof-of-concept experiments illustrating its behaviors when key parameters are modified. In doing so, we show how FLEE is capable of examining the dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system from a new perspective that is informed-by and builds-upon empirical work. This information can support researchers and practitioners in hazard risk management, meteorology, and related disciplines, thereby offering the promise of direct applications to mitigate hurricane losses.