Open data analysis of terrestrial water storage and water availability in the Middle East: Spatiotemporal trends, hydroclimatic drivers, and socio-ecological implications
Fahimeh Youssefi, Behnam Khorrami, Shoaib Ali, Samira Sadat Soltani, Mohammad Javad Valadan Zoej, Jonathan Li, Ebrahim Ghaderpour
Abstract
This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) and Water Availability (WA) across the Middle East (ME) from 2002 to 2024 using exclusively open-access datasets, including GRACE/GRACE-FO mascon solutions, GLDAS-Noah simulations, CHIRPS precipitation records, and global aridity indices. The contributions of six hydroclimatic variables, such as snow water equivalent, canopy water storage, soil moisture storage, groundwater storage, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, to TWS and WA were quantified through component contribution ratio analysis and Least-Squares Cross Wavelet Analysis (LSCWA). The harmonized and reconstructed datasets provided here are openly accessible, enabling reproducibility and further regional water studies. Results reveal a critical decline in ME water storage, with an average depletion of −45 km 3 annually, and widespread WA deficits affecting about half the region. Groundwater storage emerged as the dominant contributor to TWS variability, particularly under arid and hyper-arid conditions, whereas soil moisture and snow water played stronger roles in humid zones. The coherency analysis indicates that annual cycles of TWS and WA were strongly linked with hydroclimatic drivers before 2020 but weakened in subsequent years. These findings, underpinned by openly shared datasets, provide essential resources and insights for water management strategies and sustainable policy development in one of the world's most water-stressed regions.