Transition pathway towards 100% renewable energy across the sectors of power, heat, transport, and desalination for the Philippines
Ashish Gulagi, Myron Alcanzare, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Eugene A. Esparcia, Joey D. Ocon, Christian Breyer
Abstract
Transition towards sustainable energy systems is of utmost importance to avert global consequences of climate change. Within the framework of the Paris Agreement and Marrakech Communique, this study analyses an energy transition pathway utilising renewable resources for the Philippines. The transition study is performed from 2015 to 2050 on a high temporal and spatial resolution data, using a linear optimisation tool. From the results of this study, technically, a 100% fossil free energy system in 2050 is possible, with a cost structure comparable to an energy system in 2015, while having zero greenhouse gas emissions. Solar PV as a generation and batteries a as storage technology form the backbone of the energy system during the transition. Direct and indirect electrification across all sectors would result in an efficiency gain of more than 50% in 2050, while keeping the total annual investment within 20–55 b€. Heat pumps, electrical heating, and solar thermal technologies would supply heat, whereas, direct electricity and synthetic fuels would fuel the energy needs of the transport sector. The results indicate that, indigenous renewable resources in the Philippines could power the demand from all energy sectors, thereby, bringing various socio-economic benefits.