How to accelerate CCS deployment in the Cement Industry? Assessing impacts of uncertainties on the business case
Juanita Gallego Dávila, Morten Aagesen
Abstract
The implementation of Carbon Capture and Storage-CCS has been projected to deliver substantial reductions to achieve the Net Zero scenario by 2050 and it is regarded a solution particularly relevant in decarbonizing heavy industries like cement production. However, historical challenges, partly caused by the absence of a viable business case, have hindered widespread adoption. Addressing the uncertainties surrounding the business case is crucial to identifying mechanisms that can expedite CCS deployment in these sectors. This study presents an analysis of a conceptual business case of a hypothetical CCS project at an operational cement plant in Europe, highlighting the impact of various uncertainties on its viability. It provides insights into potential project profitability under the influence of CO2 prices and two types of subsidy schemes to achieve breakeven conditions based on the chosen assumptions. The findings indicate that anticipated CO2 prices alone do not expedite the deployment of CCS, necessitating additional economic incentives or revenue streams to establish a financially viable business case. This could potentially be realized by transforming the business model of cement companies, including the creation of a market for CO2-neutral cement and advocating for green public procurement in construction projects.