An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses: short- and long-range contributions
Andre Henriques, Wei Jia, Luís Aleixo, Nicolas Mounet, Luca Fontana, Alice Simniceanu, James Devine, Philip Elson, Gabriella Azzopardi, Markus Rognlien, Marco Andreini, Nicola Tarocco, Olivia Keiser, Yuguo Li, Julian W. Tang
Abstract
This study presents an advanced airborne transmission risk assessment model that integrates both short- and long-range routes in the spread of respiratory viruses, building upon the CERN Airborne Model for Indoor Risk Assessment (CAiMIRA) and aligned with the new World Health Organization (WHO) terminology. Thanks to a two-stage exhaled jet approach, the model accurately simulates short-range exposures, thereby improving infection risk predictions across diverse indoor settings. Key findings reveal that in patient wards, the short-range viral dose is 10-fold higher than the long-range component, highlighting the critical role of close proximity interactions. Implementation of FFP2 respirators resulted in a remarkable 13-fold reduction in viral dose, underscoring the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE). Additionally, the model demonstrated that an 8 h exposure in a poorly ventilated office can equate to the risk of a 15 min face-to-face, mask-less interaction, emphasizing the importance of physical distancing and source control. We also found in high-risk or low-occupancy settings, that secondary transmission is driven more by overall epidemic trends than by the presence of individual superspreaders. Monte Carlo simulations across various scenarios, including classrooms and offices, validate the model's robustness in optimizing infection prevention strategies. These findings support targeted interventions for short- and long-range exposure to reduce airborne transmission.