Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures
Hyejin Kim, Garry Peterson, William W. L. Cheung, Simon Ferrier, Rob Alkemade, Almut Arneth, Jan J. Kuiper, Sana Okayasu, Laura Pereira, Lilibeth A. Acosta, Rebecca Chaplin‐Kramer, E. den Belder, Tyler D. Eddy, Justin A. Johnson, Sylvia Karlsson‐Vinkhuyzen, Marcel Kok, Paul Leadley, David Leclère, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Carlo Rondinini, Robert J. Scholes, Machteld Schoolenberg, Yunne‐Jai Shin, Elke Stehfest, F Stephenson, Piero Visconti, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Juan José Alava, Ivon Cuadros‐Casanova, Kathryn K. Davies, Maria A. Gasalla, Ghassen Halouani, Mike Harfoot, Shizuka Hashimoto, Thomas Hickler, Tim Hirsch, Grigory Kolomytsev, Brian W. Miller, Haruka Ohashi, M. Gabriela Palomo, Alexander Popp, Roy Paco Remme, Osamu Saitô, U. Rashid Sumalia, Simon Willcock, Henrique M. Pereira
Abstract
The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.