Deep Feature Selection of Meteorological Variables for LSTM-Based PV Power Forecasting in High-Dimensional Time-Series Data
Mauladdawilah Husein, Mohammed Balfaqih, Zain Balfagih, M.C. Pegalajar, Eulalia Jadraque Gago
Abstract
Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for grid integration, particularly in maritime climates with dynamic weather patterns. This study addresses high-dimensional meteorological data challenges by systematically evaluating 32 variables across four categories (solar irradiance, temperature, atmospheric, hydrometeorological) for day-ahead PV forecasting using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Using six years of data from a 350 kWp solar farm in Scotland, we compare satellite-derived data and local weather station measurements. Surprisingly, downward thermal infrared flux—capturing persistent atmospheric moisture and cloud properties in maritime climates—emerged as the most influential predictor despite low correlation (1.93%). When paired with precipitation data, this two-variable combination achieved 99.81% R2, outperforming complex multi-variable models. Satellite data consistently surpassed ground measurements, with 9 of the top 10 predictors being satellite derived. Our approach reduces model complexity while improving forecasting accuracy, providing practical solutions for energy systems.