A nomogram to predict microvascular invasion in early hepatocellular carcinoma
Hongguang Li, Tao Li, Jinhua Hu, Jun Liu
Abstract
AIM: To construct an integrated nomogram combining protein induced by vitamin K antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and other clinical factors to detect microvascular invasion (MVI) in early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with single nodule. METHODS: One hundred and eleven early HCC patients were enrolled in the present study and 43 early HCC patients were diagnosed with MVI. Serum levels of PIVKA-II, AFP and other laboratory indicators were detected. Chi-squared test, t-test and logistic regression were employed in statistic analysis. A nomogram combining independent predictors was constructed and internal validated. RESULTS: In early HCC patients with MVI, PIVKA-II serum level was significantly higher than those without MVI (385.97 mAU/ml vs 67.08 mAU/ml; P < 0.01), as well as AFP serum level (81.6 ng/mL vs 9.15 ng/mL P = 0.001). PIVAK-II, AFP serum levels and tumor size were independent risk factors for MVI in early HCC, which was employed to develop a logistic regression model. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the model was 0.74 (95%CI 0.65 - 0.84). A nomogram combining PIVKA-II, AFP and tumor size was constructed and calibration curves showed that the model was accurate in predicting the risk of MVI in early HCC patients. CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that a preoperative nomogram combining PIVKA-II, AFP and tumor size could estimate the preoperative probability of MVI in early HCC patients, which may help clinicians in choosing treatment options and prognosis evaluation.