Prognostic value of the modified model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score including albumin in acute heart failure

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Liver and renal function evaluated by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, the MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (MELD_XI) score and the MELD including sodium (MELD_sodium) score have been considered predictors of adverse events for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the prognostic value of the MELD including albumin (MELD_albumin) score in patients with AHF has not been assessed. METHODS: A total of 466 patients with AHF were prospectively evaluated. We compared the accuracy of the 4 MELD score formulas using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and corresponding areas under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 34 months, 196 deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted Cox regression model, standardized hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval expressing the risk of all-cause mortality were 1.22 (1.06-1.40), 1.20 (1.04-1.39), 1.23 (1.06-1.42) and 1.21 (1.05-1.41) for MELD, MELD_XI, MELD_sodium and MELD_albumin scores, respectively. The MELD_albumin score showed the best prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.658) for the prediction of long-term all-cause mortality, followed by the MELD_sodium score (AUC = 0.590), the MELD score (AUC = 0.580), and the MELD_XI score (AUC = 0.544); the MELD_albumin score performs significantly more accurate than MELD and MELD_XI score for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality. Considering reclassification, MELD_albumin score increased the net reclassification improvement over and beyond MELD (13.1%, P = 0.003), MELD_XI (14.8%, P = 0.002), and MELD_sodium (11.9%, P = 0.006) scores for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The MELD_albumin score increases risk stratification of all-cause mortality over and beyond the MELD score and the other modified MELD scores in patients with acute heart failure.

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