Recent ENSO evolution and its real-time prediction challenges
Rong‐Hua Zhang, Chuan Gao, Licheng Feng
Abstract
The frequent occurrences of the second-year surface cooling condition in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as observed in late 2021, are attributed to decadal changes in the thermocline depth, which determine the relative dominances of local cooling effect in the east and subsurface warming effect remotely from the west. Coupled models need to adequately represent these processes in a balanced way, thus being able to successfully predict the observed sea surface temperature evolution in late 2021.
Topics & Concepts
ThermoclineEl Niño Southern OscillationClimatologyEnvironmental scienceSea surface temperatureOceanographyGeologyAtmospheric sciencesOcean Acidification Effects and ResponsesClimate variability and modelsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes