Exploring the Contribution of Road Infrastructure and Environmental Factors to Crash Severity at Intersections in Mixed Traffic Settings
Steffel Ludivin Tezong Feudjio, Isaac Ndumbe Jackai, Elvis Chia Ngwah, Stephen Kome Fondzenyuy, Ndingwan Tevoh Lordswill, Davide Shingo Usami, Luca Persia
Abstract
Road traffic crashes claim approximately 1.19 million lives annually worldwide, with low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bearing a disproportionately high share of this burden. Intersections in these contexts are particularly hazardous due to mixed, non-lane-based traffic and infrastructural constraints. This study analysed 1242 police-reported intersection crashes (2021–2025) from Douala and Yaoundé, Cameroon, using binary probit and logistic regression models to identify infrastructural and environmental determinants of crash severity. Results from both models were consistent, indicating that late-night and early-morning crashes (00:00–05:59) significantly increased the probability of severe outcomes by 13.5% (p-value < 0.05), while single-lane roads raised it by 21.5% (p-value < 0.05; OR = 5.38), and two-lane roads raised the probability by 9.1% (p-value < 0.05; OR = 3.90) compared with multilane sections. Additionally, centre lines were associated with safer outcomes than physical separation (p-value < 0.05; OR = 0.30). Although model fit indices were modest (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.118), typical of cross-sectional crash-severity models, the findings underscore the dominant influence of road geometry and lighting-related temporal exposure in shaping intersection crash outcomes. These insights provide a basis for targeted interventions such as road widening, improved night-time illumination, and simplified midblock designs to enhance safety in Cameroon and similar LMIC urban settings.