Towards strategic interventions for global food security in 2050

Abstract

This study aims to explore global food security, focusing on major cereal crops across different Agroecological Zones (AEZs). By projecting cereal production under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, insights into the challenges for achieving global food security by 2050 are drawn. The study identifies ‘critical’ risks in countries like Chad, Sudan, Algeria, Somalia, and Namibia in Africa, parts of Central Asia and the Middle East (Saudi Arabia), western USA, and Australia, due to high water stress combined with severe production deficits. However, implementing strategic interventions, like increasing harvested area, can significantly reduce these risks, potentially leading to surplus production in some regions. The regions still under cereal production deficit with such mitigation strategies are categorized in terms of risk to food security, considering water stress and import dependency. Iran, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, Saudi Arabia, parts of Southeastern Asia are projected to face persistent cereal production deficits and high import dependency by the mid-20th century. The study underlines the necessity for water-saving technologies and effective governance to balance crop production and water use, particularly in regions experiencing water scarcity. • Prediction of Yield Gap (YG) based on agroclimatological classification. • Projection of global cereal production at the province level under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). • Identification and classification of 'risk' with combined impacts of water stress and cereal production deficit. • Conversion of rainfed areas to irrigated cannot resolve the gap in required and actual production in future scenarios. • Import dependency-based vulnerability to resolve food insecurity in 2050 identifies countries like Iran, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Saudi Arabia to be at threat.

Topics & Concepts