A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics
Arianna Agosto, Paolo Giudici
Abstract
We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.
Topics & Concepts
Autoregressive modelCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Poisson distributionEconometricsPoisson regressionEconomicsDynamics (music)Series (stratigraphy)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakTime seriesSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)MathematicsStatisticsPsychologySociologyMedicineDemographyGeologyVirologyPedagogyOutbreakDiseasePaleontologyPathologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)PopulationCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsData-Driven Disease Surveillance