Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure
Rebecca Court, Matteo Lattuada, Nataliya Shumeyko, Mirgaliy Baimukanov, Tariyel Eybatov, Altynay Kaidarova, Elchin V. Mamedov, Eldar Rustamov, Aselle Tasmagambetova, Matthias Prange, Thomas Wilke, Christopher Hassall, Simon J. Goodman
Abstract
Abstract The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked waterbody, providing habitat for hundreds of endemic and migratory species, along with ecosystem services that sustain millions of people. Global warming is projected to drive declines in water levels of up to 21 m by 2100. Using geospatial analyses, we assessed the impact of sea level decline on habitats, protected areas, and human infrastructure. We show that a water level decline of just 5–10 m will critically disrupt key ecosystems (including habitats for endemic Caspian seals and sturgeon), reduce existing marine protected area coverage by up to 94%, and render billions of dollars of civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete. Replacing traditional static conservation planning with a pre-emptive, dynamic approach that allows protected areas to track shifting ecosystems, is recommended to help endemic Caspian Sea biodiversity adapt to these changes, and to avoid conflicts with mitigation efforts directed at protecting human activities.