Reliability-based journey time prediction via two-stream deep learning with multi-source data
Zhuang Li, Xinyue Wu, Andy H.F. Chow, Wei Ma, William H. K. Lam, S.C. Wong
Abstract
This paper presents a distribution-free reliability-based prediction approach for estimating journey time intervals with multi-source data using a two-stream deep learning framework. The prediction framework consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) module for extracting temporal features and a convolutional neural network (CNN) module for extracting spatial-temporal features from the heterogeneous data. The precision and reliability of the prediction are assessed respectively by the Mean Prediction Interval Width (MPIW) and Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) metrics. For computational effectiveness, a Gaussian approximation is adopted to formulate a smooth and differentiable loss function for training the prediction framework. The computational experiments are conducted based on a real-world Hong Kong corridor, where multi-source data including traffic and weather conditions are collected. The proposed framework shows significant improvements over existing methods in terms of both precision and reliability over a range of traffic and weather conditions. This study contributes to the development of reliability-based intelligent transportation systems with advanced deep learning techniques.