Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico
Andrew J. Wilson, R. Daniel Bressler, Catherine Ivanovich, Cascade Tuholske, Colin Raymond, Radley Horton, Adam H. Sobel, Patrick L. Kinney, Tereza Cavazos, Jeffrey Shrader
Abstract
Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people who are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3-7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.