Area Dose–Response and Radiation Origin of Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Fukushima Based on Thyroid Dose in UNSCEAR 2020/2021: High 131I Exposure Comparable to Chernobyl
Toshiko Kato, Kosaku Yamada, Tadashi Hongyo
Abstract
The FMU and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) concluded that the high incidence of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear accident was not the result of radiation exposure, but rather might have been overdiagnosis based on the low thyroid dose estimated in the UNSCEAR 2020/2021 report. In this study, the origin of increased PTC in Fukushima was examined based on the thyroid dose estimated by UNSCEAR. The dose–response relationship of the incidence rate per person-years (PY) was analyzed for four areas in Fukushima prefecture via regression analysis. The linear response of the annual incidence rates to thyroid dose in the first six years showed that the dominant origin of childhood thyroid cancer was radiation exposure. Excess absolute risk (EAR) proportionally increased with thyroid dose, with an EAR/104 PY Gy of 143 (95%CI: 122, 165) in the second TUE (p < 0.001), which is approximately 50–100 times higher than the EAR/104 PY Gy ≒ 2.3 observed after the Chernobyl accident. This suggests an underestimation of the thyroid dose by UNSCEAR of approximately 1/50~1/100 compared with the thyroid dose for Chernobyl. The increased childhood thyroid cancer in Fukushima was found to arise from radioactive iodine exposure, which was comparable to that in Chernobyl.