Clinical Scores Predict Acute and Chronic Complications in Pediatric Osteomyelitis: An External Validation
Neeraj Vij, Ian M. Singleton, Paul Kang, Melissa Esparza, Jessica Burns, Mohan V. Belthur
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pediatric acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO) outcomes are highly dependent on the disease severity. Recently, the A-SCORE and C-SCORE, were proposed as predictors of an acute complicated course and chronic morbidity, respectively. The purpose of this study was to externally validate the A-SCORE and C-SCORE at a single institution. METHODS: This IRB-approved retrospective chart review included AHO patients admitted at a tertiary referral hospital between October 1, 2015 and December 31, 2019. The inclusion criteria were ages 0 to 18 and clinical response to treatment. The exclusion criteria were immunocompromised status or penetrating inoculation. RESULTS: The A-SCORE demonstrated an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC area) of >86% with regards to all acute complications. It also demonstrated sensitivities >85% and specificities >92% at the cut-off of 4 (Youden index) for all acute complications. The C-SCORE demonstrated an ROC area of 100% with regards to chronic osteomyelitis. It also demonstrated sensitivities >70% and specificities >93% for the chronic morbidity variables seen in our population at the cut-off of 3 (Youden index.). CONCLUSIONS: These novel composite clinical scores, in combination with clinical judgment, could help guide early care decisions. The A-SCORE and C-SCORE are useful risk stratification tools in the management of pediatric AHO and in predicting acute complicated courses or chronic sequelae of AHO, respectively. These scoring systems, if integrated into standardized pediatric AHO guidelines, can allow clinicians to stratify the AHO population and guide clinical decision making. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III (prognostic study, retrospective chart review).