On the Role of Solar PV for the Energy-Industry Transition in the Americas
Christian Breyer, Gabriel Lopez, Arman Aghahosseini, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Rasul Satymov, Ayobami Solomon Oyewo
Abstract
With the growth of solar photovoltaics (PV) in recent years as the largest power source by capacity added, the energy-industry transition towards high sustainability is accelerating. However, the energy-industry systems of the Americas are largely lagging as fossil fuels still dominate the electricity generation mix and the system as a whole. Energy-industry transition pathways are developed for all countries of the Americas reaching 100% renewable energy (RE) by 2050 for all energy and industry sectors. To benchmark the transition to 100% RE, the results are compared to current energy policies across the Americas, representing business-as-usual (BAU) conditions. The results indicate the significant potential to expand RE, especially solar PV, to reach the 100% RE target and fully defossilize each region's economy. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced from its current level of 71 €/MWh to 24 €/MWh in 2050, and the levelized cost of final energy (LCOFE) sees reductions from 49 to 40 €/MWh from 2020 to 2050. Conversely, under BAU conditions, the LCOE only sees moderate reductions to 43 €/MWh in 2050, and the LCOFE remains relatively stable at 39 €/MWh in 2050. Widespread electrification across energy-industry sectors requires significant expansion of solar PV, which accounts for 78% of all electricity supply, leading to 14.8 TW of installed capacity. Furthermore, e-hydrogen for e-fuels and e-chemicals leads to an electrolyser capacity of 4.3 TW<sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">el</sub>. The dominating role of solar PV thus indicates that the future Americas energy-industry system can be characterized as a Solar-to-X Economy.