A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease
Xavier Bardina, Marco Ferrante, Carles Rovira
2020Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)20 citationsDOIOpen Access PDF
Abstract
To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the presence of quarantine areas, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of such diseases.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)QuarantineEpidemic modelAsymptomaticSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakStochastic modellingPandemicVirologyDiseaseLatency (audio)Infectious disease (medical specialty)Statistical physicsBiologyComputer scienceEvolutionary biologyMathematicsMedicineStatisticsPhysicsEcologyEnvironmental healthOutbreakInternal medicinePopulationTelecommunicationsCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis