Drought and Suboptimal Habitats Shape Norway Spruce Vulnerability to Bark Beetle Outbreaks in Białowieża Forest, Poland
Wojciech Kędziora, Katarzyna Szyc, Joaquim S. Silva, Roman Wójcik
Abstract
Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is experiencing large-scale decline across Central Europe, with climate warming and bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) outbreaks as primary drivers. In lowland Białowieża Forest, Poland, spruce occupies a range of habitats that differ in their suitability for long-term persistence. We hypothesized that climate change accelerates spruce decline by reducing resilience in suboptimal habitats and increasing susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, with long-term persistence limited to optimal hydrological sites. To address this, we analysed spruce share from 1902–2018, its distribution across suitable versus unsuitable habitats, and long-term climate records in relation to outbreaks. Historical maps, forest site classifications, and meteorological data were used to calculate hydro-climatic indices (HTC, SPEI-12, Selyaninov), and outbreak relationships were tested using Welch’s t-test and point-biserial correlation, including lag effects. Spruce share increased from 12% in 1902 to 27% in 2015 and then declined to 9% by 2018. In 2015, 75% of spruce-dominated stands occurred in unsuitable habitats. Bark beetle outbreaks were significantly associated with drought, with outbreak years showing lower precipitation (–121 mm), reduced Selyaninov k (mean 1.40 vs. 1.61), and more negative SPEI-12 values (–0.48 vs. 0.07) compared to non-outbreak years (p < 0.05). One-year lag analysis indicated drought as both a predisposing and triggering factor. These findings highlight the interaction of habitat suitability and drought as a key driver of spruce decline, supporting adaptive management strategies that retain spruce in optimal habitats while converting suboptimal stands to more drought-tolerant species.